As Canadians continue to grapple with stubbornly high beef prices at grocery stores, experts say meaningful relief is unlikely to arrive anytime soon. Despite early signs that Canada’s national cattle herd is beginning to recover after years of decline, the long biological and economic cycle of beef production means consumers are facing what one food economist calls a prolonged “waiting game.”
Speaking with CTV Your Morning, University of Guelph professor Mike von Massow explained that a combination of reduced cattle numbers, harsh weather conditions, strong export demand, and shifting consumer habits are all contributing to sustained high beef prices across the country.
Canada’s Cattle Herd Still Near Historic Lows
Canada’s beef supply challenges stem from a multi-year contraction in the national cattle herd, driven largely by environmental and economic pressures on producers.
Statistics Canada Data Highlights Decline
According to a Statistics Canada report released in February, the number of cattle in Canada fell for a third consecutive year, reaching its lowest level in decades. As of Jan. 1, Canadian farmers held approximately 10.9 million cattle and calves, representing a 0.7 per cent decrease compared to the same date in 2024.
While the pace of decline has slowed, von Massow notes that rebuilding a herd of this size is neither quick nor simple.
“Cows are the factory of the beef industry,” he said. “If you have fewer cows, you have fewer calves, and fewer calves means less beef.”
Weather Conditions Add Pressure on Producers
The challenges facing cattle producers have been intensified by extreme and persistent weather patterns in recent years.
Drought and Feed Shortages Take a Toll
Von Massow pointed to prolonged dry conditions across Western Canada and the U.S. Midwest as a major factor limiting herd growth.
“With dry weather, you have less feed, you have less pasture, and so it’s more difficult to maintain the cattle herd,” he explained.
When pasture quality declines and feed becomes scarce or expensive, producers are often forced to reduce herd sizes to manage costs. These decisions, while necessary in the short term, have long-lasting effects on beef supply.
Why Beef Production Takes Years to Rebound
Even as conditions gradually improve and farmers begin retaining more cattle, the structure of beef production creates built-in delays before increased supply reaches consumers.
A Long Biological Cycle
Von Massow emphasized that herd rebuilding is a multi-year process.
“Cows must first be born, raised to breeding age, and then have a calf,” he said. “So even as numbers begin to grow again, it will be years before that additional production fully translates to greater beef availability.”
This lag means that while cattle numbers may stabilize or slowly rise, beef prices can remain elevated well into the future.
Food Inflation Continues to Outpace Overall Inflation
The pressure on beef prices is occurring within a broader context of rising food costs across Canada.
Grocery Prices Climb Faster Than Inflation
Although Canada’s overall inflation rate stabilized at 2.2 per cent in November, grocery prices rose significantly faster. Statistics Canada data shows food prices increased 4.7 per cent year-over-year in the same month — the largest jump since December 2023.
Meat prices, in particular, have been a major driver of food inflation.
According to the latest Food Price Report, produced by a consortium of Canadian universities, meat prices rose 7.2 per cent this year and are projected to increase another five to seven per cent in 2026.
Beef’s Popularity Keeps Prices Firm
Despite rising costs, consumer demand for beef remains strong, limiting the potential for prices to fall.
Shifting Preferences, Steady Demand
Von Massow said Canadians are adjusting how they consume beef rather than cutting it out entirely.
“We like beef. People are changing the kinds of beef they eat,” he said. “We’re seeing a lot more ground beef getting eaten and fewer steaks.”
While some premium cuts may see softer demand, overall consumption remains high enough to keep upward pressure on prices.
Export Demand Adds to Supply Constraints
Canada’s beef market is deeply connected to international trade, and global demand continues to play a significant role in domestic pricing.
More Than Half of Canadian Beef Is Exported
A report from Beef Farmers of Ontario shows that 51 per cent of the total beef and cattle produced in Canada was exported in 2023.
The majority of those exports — approximately 75 per cent — were destined for the United States. Japan accounted for roughly nine per cent, while Mexico received about 6.5 per cent.
Von Massow explained that international buyers are often willing to pay competitive prices, which supports Canadian producers but limits downward price pressure at home.
“It’s not like it’s just Canadian domestic demand that’s impacting prices,” he said.
Imports Help, but Only to a Point
Canada does import beef, but experts say imports can only partially offset domestic supply shortages.
Cross-Border Trade Remains Crucial
According to industry data, 53 per cent of Canada’s beef imports come from the United States, with smaller shares from Australia and New Zealand.
Von Massow noted that imports play an important balancing role, particularly in Eastern Canada, while most Canadian beef exports originate in Western Canada.
“We have existing relationships, and the truth is that if we shut them off, we might not get them back,” he said.
He added that export markets can sometimes benefit Canadian consumers by absorbing cuts that are less popular domestically, helping processors use the whole animal more efficiently.
Limited Relief in the Short Term
While some moderation in price increases is possible, experts caution that a dramatic drop in beef prices is unlikely in the near future.
A Gradual Adjustment, Not a Sudden Shift
Von Massow expects imports to help temper future increases but says the fundamental supply gap remains.
“It is a waiting game as the herd gets rebuilt,” he said. “I expect we’ll continue to see some imports that will moderate those increases to a degree.”
However, he added that market forces naturally limit how wide the price gap can grow.
“The gap can’t get too big,” he said.
Conclusion: Patience Required for Consumers
For now, Canadians are likely to continue feeling the strain of high beef prices as the cattle industry slowly works through years of supply challenges. While signs of herd recovery offer cautious optimism, the realities of weather impacts, global demand, and long production cycles mean relief will come gradually rather than quickly.
As von Massow suggests, time — more than any single policy or market shift — will ultimately determine when beef prices begin to ease. Until then, consumers may continue adjusting their shopping habits while waiting for the cattle herd, and the beef market, to fully recover.
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