MONTREAL — A proposed high-speed rail line linking Toronto and Quebec City could dramatically reshape travel across Canada’s most densely populated corridor, with internal documents suggesting the network may support as many as 72 passenger trains per day once fully built.
The estimates, contained in draft technical briefings obtained by The Canadian Press through access-to-information requests, offer new insight into the scale and ambition of a project the federal government has described as transformational. If realized, the roughly 1,000-kilometre high-speed rail network would significantly cut travel times, allowing passengers to travel between Montreal and Toronto in as little as three hours.
While final service decisions have yet to be made, the documents underscore how dramatically the proposed system could expand rail capacity and alter travel habits across Ontario and Quebec.
Internal Documents Reveal Ambitious Train Volumes
The briefing materials were prepared in 2023, more than a year before the federal government formally announced the high-speed rail project. At the time, the Crown corporation overseeing the initiative was still operating under the name VIA HFR, before later being rebranded as Alto.
According to draft versions of the technical analysis, Alto estimated that by 2039, a completed high-speed rail system could support 72 passenger trains per day operating along the Quebec City–Toronto corridor. This represents a significant increase compared to current rail service levels.
An Alto spokesperson confirmed that the corporation continues to view that estimate as realistic under the right conditions.
“Seventy-two trains per day is a reasonable estimate based on our current planning assumptions,” said Benoit Bourdeau, spokesperson for Alto.
Major Expansion Compared to Current Rail Service
Today, rail traffic along the corridor is far more limited. VIA Rail says an average of 39 passenger trains per day currently operate across the various segments between Quebec City and Toronto, including shorter regional routes.
Between Toronto and Montreal specifically, VIA Rail typically offers about eight trains per day in each direction — a fraction of what a high-speed network could eventually support.
Under Alto’s planning assumptions, that number could rise to 20 to 30 trains per day in each direction between Toronto and Montreal alone. Some of those services would be express trains, skipping certain stops to reduce travel times even further.
H3: Frequent Departures a Key Goal
Bourdeau said the goal is to make rail travel far more convenient and competitive.
“Current planning aims for frequent departures, generally hourly, with the potential for departures every 30 minutes during peak periods, depending on routes,” he explained.
However, he emphasized that the figures outlined in the 2023 documents remain working assumptions, not finalized service plans.
“These are not final service decisions,” Bourdeau cautioned.
From High-Frequency to High-Speed: A Strategic Shift
The internal briefings also shed light on a significant strategic pivot within government and rail planning circles. For several years, Ottawa had been promoting a more modest high-frequency rail proposal, featuring additional trains on largely conventional tracks at lower speeds and lower cost.
By 2023, however, concerns were emerging that such a system might fail to generate sufficient public support — particularly in Quebec, where provincial and municipal leaders were increasingly vocal in their preference for true high-speed rail.
As a result, the Crown corporation began examining the feasibility of a faster, more ambitious alternative.
Then operating as VIA HFR, the agency conducted a preliminary high-speed rail study to compare costs, travel times, ridership potential, and revenue against both the existing VIA Rail system and the proposed high-frequency option.
Comparing the Options: High-Speed vs. High-Frequency
Although many figures in the briefing documents were redacted, key comparisons were still visible.
The documents suggest that under the original high-frequency rail plan, the corridor might have seen only 58 trains per day by 2045, operating at significantly slower speeds than high-speed rail.
By contrast, the high-speed option projected higher daily train volumes years earlier, along with much shorter journey times.
The briefings also note that at the time the analysis was conducted, just 24 passenger trains per day were operating along the corridor — a figure VIA Rail says reflected service reductions during the COVID-19 pandemic and has since increased.
Federal Government Moves Forward
The federal government formally embraced the high-speed vision in February, when then-prime minister Justin Trudeau unveiled plans for what he called “the largest infrastructure project in Canadian history.”
Under the proposal, electric trains would travel at speeds of up to 300 kilometres per hour on dedicated tracks, separating passenger rail from freight traffic and significantly improving reliability.
In September, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that the government’s new major projects office would accelerate engineering and regulatory work on the rail line. More recently, Transport Minister Steven MacKinnon confirmed that the first segment of the network will link Montreal and Ottawa, with construction expected to begin in 2029.
Cost and Funding Remain Open Questions
Alto estimates the total cost of the full Toronto–Quebec City high-speed rail project could range from $60 billion to $90 billion. While the government has committed funding for planning and early development, it has not yet approved full financing for the entire network.
The scale of the investment has sparked debate over affordability, timelines, and long-term value — even as proponents argue the economic, environmental, and social benefits could be substantial.
Forecasting Ridership and Demand
Another briefing, prepared for the Prime Minister’s Office and obtained through a separate access-to-information request, offers insight into projected ridership.
According to that forecast:
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A high-speed rail system could generate 26.5 million trips annually by 2059
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A high-frequency system would attract 17.7 million trips
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Existing VIA Rail services would account for just 6.4 million trips
The projections suggest high-speed rail could more than quadruple current ridership levels over time.
Experts Weigh Opportunities and Uncertainties
Transportation experts say Alto’s projections rely heavily on the idea that high-speed rail will attract passengers who currently travel by car or plane, as well as people who might not otherwise make the trip at all.
H3: Induced Demand Hard to Predict
Ryan Katz-Rosene, an associate professor at the University of Ottawa who studies high-speed rail, says that so-called “induced demand” is one of the most difficult variables to estimate.
“We have no idea of the market context in 2030 or 2035,” he said. “We also don’t know what the competition will look like.”
Katz-Rosene pointed to emerging technologies, such as autonomous vehicles, that could alter travel behavior in unpredictable ways.
Advocates See Transformational Potential
Transportation advocates, however, argue that Canada has barely begun to tap the potential demand for fast, reliable intercity rail.
Terry Johnson, president of Transport Action Canada, said high-speed rail could fundamentally change how Canadians think about travel.
“There’s a vast amount of untapped demand,” Johnson said. “Imagine being able to hop on a train from Toronto to Quebec City for a long weekend.”
He believes the project could open up new economic and cultural connections across the corridor.
“There are ways in which this will completely knock people’s socks off in terms of what new possibilities it opens up,” Johnson said.
Conclusion: A Network That Could Redefine Travel
While significant hurdles remain — including cost, funding approval, and long-term planning — the newly revealed documents illustrate just how transformative the Toronto–Quebec City high-speed rail project could be.
If built as envisioned, dozens of daily trains, frequent departures, and dramatically reduced travel times could redefine mobility across central Canada. Whether the project ultimately lives up to its promise will depend on political will, public support, and the ability to translate ambitious planning assumptions into reality.
For now, the documents offer a glimpse into a future where rail once again becomes the backbone of intercity travel in Canada’s busiest corridor.
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